Currently, the prices of many commodities are in a downward trend. This is due to inflation, the price of oil, the price of gold and copper. Hopefully, it will improve in the next quarter. In the meantime, it is important to keep track of these prices so that you can make the right investment choices.
Traders are now more active in restocking their short positions in the copper market. As a result, physical copper stocks are down to 61,300 tonnes. Traders also brought metals from LME warehouses to China during the arbitrage window that opened in August.
The price for copper reached all-time highs of $10,512 per metric ton in May. But the price has since been declining. The IMF projects the price to fall to $7,600 per metric ton by 2026. The Department of Industry, Science, Energy, and Resources predicts it to decline to $7,724 in two years.
The price for copper was down 18% from the same period last year. It is expected to decline further to $7,500 per metric ton by 2021 and $8,400 per metric ton by 2023. It is also expected to rise to $8,250 per metric ton by 2035.
During Q4 2022, gold news could be favorable, according to analysts. The United States is expected to recover from a recession, and emerging markets are also likely to grow, leading to increased demand for gold. But the price of the metal could fall during the fourth quarter. Depending on interest rates in the US, the dollar could also depreciate.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the price of the metal will average US$ 1,200 per ounce in the next few years. They cite stronger growth in emerging markets, but also a slowing global economy. They assume that consumers will buy more gold and that household wealth will also increase.
ABN Amro’s gold price forecast for next year is US$ 1,400. It expects the price to drop further, however, by the end of 2018. The bank says it expects the price to be below the current level.
Despite a slow start, Lean hogs in Q4 2022 have shown signs of life. Futures markets have been projecting favorable pricing opportunities for producers and consumers, albeit at the cost of volatility.
The market is backwardally curved in this month’s forward curve, meaning that it is predicting higher production in the near future, but lower near-term demand. This indicates that supply is expected to continue to outpace demand in the coming months, and the market believes that it will begin to catch up with demand in the next few years.
The USDA WASDE report espouses higher expectations for pork exports. It also indicates that carcass weights will decline in the next three quarters, which is a sign of tightening supplies.
The pork industry has seen a robust domestic demand, supported by strong grocery sales. Consumers are looking for value-conscious options and are trading down from branded products to private label alternatives.
Despite the strong dollar, energy prices have risen this year. It is still unclear where this bull run will end. The short-term bearish market dynamics are expected to keep oil prices below $110/b before year-end.
The Fed has begun a cycle of tightening monetary policies to combat inflation. This could lead to slower manufacturing activity, lower trade, and lower commodity prices. This could also limit oil demand growth. A recession could result from a slowdown in the global economy.
Oil prices are down from their early March highs, but they are still up from the lows of the previous quarter. This is the result of increased supply and weaker demand expectations. The EIA forecasts that global oil inventories will fall slightly in 2023. Despite the expected decline, the EIA also expects record U.S. crude oil production of 12.4 million bpd in 2023.
Across advanced economies, inflation exceeded World Economic Out- look forecasts in the 2021-22 period. The increase was led by energy, and a strong recovery in demand drove underlying inflation. However, the corresponding upward revisions in inflation forecasts for emerging and developing Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa were smaller.
Core inflation forecast errors have been less pronounced in China and developing Asia, although the latter has been hampered by cooling economic activity. The global economy may have been at the steeper end of the aggregate supply curve in 2021. However, this may be less pronounced in the coming years as efforts to ramp up crude oil production help soften energy-induced inflationary pressures.
Forecasts for global headline consumer price index inflation have been revised upward by 0.5 percentage points since July. Headline inflation is estimated to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022.